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Author Topic: April 2009 World economic and property articles  (Read 1683 times)

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Offline HIDDEN

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Due to the optimistic outlook for the Malaysian Economy Bank Negara leaves OPR unchanged

PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara has decided to leave its key policy rate - the overnight policy rate - unchanged at 2.0% as inflation, which decelerated to 3.5% in March, is expected to moderate further amid subdued demand conditions and lower external price pressures.

The central bank said in a statement Wednesday evening following its monetary policy committee meeting that there were also tentative signs of a slower pace of decline despite global economic conditions deteriorating further in the first-quarter of 2009.

It added that the domestic economy would face a marked contraction in the first quarter of the year but is expected to improve in the second-half supported by stabilisation in global economic conditions.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/4/29/business/20090429183113&sec=business

Offline HIDDEN

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Re: April 2009 World economic and property articles
« Reply #31 on: April 30, 2009, 12:58:14 PM »
Malaysian shares and ringgit boosted by upbeat economic assessment
PETALING JAYA: An upbeat assessment by Bank Negara’s Monetary Policy Committee on the economy in the second half of the year coupled with a strong performance on Wall Street and today in Asia is giving shares and the ringgit a boost Thursday.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/4/30/business/20090430123953&sec=business

New Zealand Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate by Half Point to Record-Low 2.5%
New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a record 2.5 percent and said borrowing costs will stay low until late next year to help the economy recover from a recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aHzK98IkIEyQ&refer=australia

New Zealand Dollar Drops After Bollard Says Rates Will Stay Low Until 2010
New Zealand’s dollar and swap rates dropped after the central bank cut borrowing costs to a record and said the benchmark will stay low till late 2010, reducing the appeal of the nation’s assets. Australia’s currency fell.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNL1rEMoGJMk&refer=australia

Guardian: A Florida condo for less than the price of a new car
Interesting because some Real Estate pundits were calling a bottom in this 'epicenter' of the property downturn earlier this year. This article suggests that optimism might be misplaced.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2009/apr/28/us-house-prices

Citywire: Signs of Life: Eight graphs to help you spot the market bottom
(1) The Baltic Dry Shipping Index: A key measure of the health of world trade
(2) Vix Index: A measure of volatility in equity markets
(3) Gold & Copper prices: Copper has traditionally proved more accurate than gold in measuring turning points in global industrial demand (4)Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities: A key indicator of investors' desire to hedge against inflation
(5) Banking shares in the UK and US: These shares have proven the key thermomotor of investor confidence
(6) S&P 500: The world's most followed equity market
(7) Halifax Property Seasonally-Adjusted Index: House prices still remain one of the biggest drivers of consumer confidence
(8) US Investment Grade Bonds: History suggests these bonds rally on average two months ahead of equity prices
http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/news/market-and-shares/content.aspx?ID=339058&re=5365&ea=118560

Times: US economy shrinks faster than forecast - 6.1% in first quarter
The US economy contracted at a sharper-than-expected rate between January and March, revealing that the world's largest economy is still mired in deep recession.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6192178.ece

Mail: Father returns home to find house boarded up after 'incompetent' bailiffs repossess wrong property
A semi-retired father-of-two returned home to find 'incompetent' court bailiffs had repossessed his house by mistake. Ian Parrott, 62, discovered his locks had been changed, the letterbox boarded up, and a repossession order hanging in his window. The notice said his detached home in Eynesbury, Cambridgeshire, had been repossessed and that he had seven days to reclaim his belongings.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1175016/Father-returns-home-house-boarded-incompetent-bailiffs-repossess-wrong-property.html

BBC News: Lithuania's economy shrinks 12%
I remember spending many hours reading about property investment in the new EU emerging markets. Subscribed to the websites and read the books, but felt I missed the boat by the time I was in a position to get involved. Friends told me stories of flats in regal builings in Vilnius going for £8k. Looks like the Baltics are going to be a horror story even before the rest of the EU. Bulgaria is another market I'm watching with interest....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8022961.stm

Telegraph: UK wages collapse at fastest rate in 60 years
Average weekly earnings fell 5.8pc compared with the same month last year. The private sector took the full force of the fall in weekly earnings, down sharply by 7.7pc; while average weekly earnings in the public sector actually rose by 3.2pc. "We certainly haven't seen anything like this in the last 60 years, and probably not in peacetime since the 1930s," said Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citigroup. According to the ONS data, it is only the second month of falls during the current downturn, after weekly wages fell 1.9pc in January compared with a year earlier. The falls partly reflect moves by some private sector employees to freeze wages and even cut pay as they struggle to keep jobs and stay afloat during the recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5245729/UK-wages-collapse-at-fastest-rate-in-60-years.html

Times: Celtic Tiger ready to pounce on treaty as recession bites
Ireland, the former 'Celtic Tiger', is gripped by the worst recession of any developed country. The projections are startling - unemployment to hit 17% this year, GDP to fall by 12% by 2010 (worst in the developed world,) house prices to fall a third from their 2007 peak, government budget deficit to hit four times the EU limit, despite an emergency budget earlier this month slashing spending and hiking taxes. The consequences of Ireland’s dependence on the property boom have been laid clear. It's the worst performance by an industrialized nation since the Great Depression. Ireland halted EU expansion last year by voting No on the Lisbon Treaty. The perceived value of the ECB's support has helped changed minds
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/bronwen_maddox/article6194828.ece

Online HIDDEN

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Re: April 2009 World economic and property articles
« Reply #32 on: April 30, 2009, 03:27:34 PM »
hi,

I checked-out the citywire.co.uk (eight graphs) as I'd like to get some overall view of when the bottom is going to bottom - i.e. within my projected lifetime. If this is all going to be the mother of Great Depressions, and last 20 years, then I really don't have any need to worry about it.

Then I clicked further on the retirement section and came across this data for Best Funds :

Quote
Best Funds
Europe Ex UK Equities - Life Funds over 3 years
Rank   Fund   Total
Returns
1/172    Click to view Mini-Factsheet AIG Odey Continental European-Life
   -3.5
2/172    Click to view Mini-Factsheet NatWest European Equity S3-Life
   -4.2
3/172    Click to view Mini-Factsheet Winterthur Cazenove European-Life
   -4.7
4/172    Click to view Mini-Factsheet Lloyds TSB German Growth S2-Life
   -5.5
5/172    Click to view Mini-Factsheet FNW Threadneedle European Select Growth-Life
   -5.7

View full table | Change sector or time per

So, with this info, over 3 years, retirement folks in these funds will only be out about 5%. Hardly re-assuring. Add-in 3% or 4% for inflation and you'll run out of cash sooner rather than later. I'm sure most funds are down more than this. My own stock holding is down 67%.

I guess for a lot of folks my age (62) retirement went out of the window sometime last year. Unless, of course, there's a pdq (pretty damn quick) reversal of 2008.

regards, Scott


Offline HIDDEN

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Re: April 2009 World economic and property articles
« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2009, 04:59:07 PM »
Hi Scott

There are some double AA rated bonds available in Malaysia, I believe that one AA Bond offers 4%+ for one year and up to 7% for a longer period, coupon/dividend is paid half yearly.

In the UK if you have sterling, the government has upped the ISA (Tax Free) investment level to £10,000, I believe that this is only available for over 55s and of course you need to be a UK tax payer. There are other boutique fund managers that have cautious funds mostly invested in Government Bonds/FDs and Blue chips that offer between 5.5-6.5% in Malaysia with fairly instant access, however you may need to invest a min of 500,000rm to get one of these or know the right person!

Paul

 

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