24 APR FX for the Ringgit

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hi,

FX reports for the ringgit for the Week ending 24th April 2010 :


AmResearch
The USD strengthened against major currencies as it continued to gain from the rise in risk aversion. With the Greek crisis starting to have contagion effects on other debt-ridden nations in the Eurozone, we expect the USD to remain firm on rising sovereign debt risk.

EUR/USD fell to a year-low of 1.3201 on continued Greek woes. although the fall of the EUR from December 2009 seem overextended, the range of fundamental uncertainties plaguing Eurozone economy make the possibility of a marked correction seem remote. Sterling has been buoyed by recent positive economic data, but political uncertainty remained a concern. GBP/USD may be rangebound within its recent 1.50 - 1.55 range with downside risks.

USD/MYR continued to consolidate around the 3.2000 handle in the past week. However lingring speculation of CNY revaluation and a still heavy USD/Asia picture will likely dictate a downside bias to the USD/MYR. Expected range next week: 3.1800 - 3.2300.
Starbizweek


Foreign Exchange
GBP/USD open 1.5287 close 1.5358
EUR/USD open 1.3477 close 1.3308
USD/JPY open 91.94 close 93.41
USD/CHF open 1.0628 close 1.0771

Concerns about debt troubles in Greece and other peripheral euro zone economies like Portugal continue to dog the EUR. The EUR plunged to near one-year lows against the dollar  after Moody's cut Greece's sovereign rating by a notch and placed the rating on review for afurther possible downgrade.

Moody's cited the risk that the cash-strapped country may end up paying a lot more for its borrowing than initially thought.

Countering euro zone's woes, data released in the US reinforced the view that the world's largest economy is on a steady path to recovery, jobless claims reported fell, while producer prices and existing home sales rose in March.

In the UK, this week's data suggested that Britain's economic outlook has brightened. Public finances deteriorated by less than forecast, while retail sales rose in March although the political uncertainty remained a concern as opinion polls suggested no one party will emerge as the clear winner in a general election on May 6th.

The yen lost ground after Fitch Ratings said that Japan's sovereign creditworthiness was at risk from rising government debt. In the absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal consolidation, government debt would continue to rise placing downward pressure on sovereign credit ratings over the medium term.

USD/MYR open 3.1950 close 3.1920
GBP/MYR open 4.8842 close 4.9023
EUR/MYR open 4.3059 close 4.2479
JPY/MYR open 3.4751 close 3.4172
CHF/MYR open 3.0062 close 2.9635

The ringgit continued to consolidate within the 3.1860/USD - 3.2240/USD after its recent surge to a 2-year high of 3.1800/USD. Its uptrend however remains intact with a possible retest of the 3.1800/USD in the coming weeks.
Starbizweek


April 23, 2010 : Ringgit Closes Slightly Higher Against US Dollar
KUALA LUMPUR, April 23 (Bernama) -- The ringgit closed slightly higher against the greenback on Friday on steadier commercial demand, dealers said. They said the strengthening of the local currency was in line with the country's strong economic fundamentals and a weakening of the US dollar on the global market. At 5.00 pm the ringgit was traded at 3.1900/1930 compared with 3.1955/1965 at yesterday's closing.

RHB Bank forex dealer Badeeudin Mohd Abu Bakar said the US dollar remained under pressure from the much stronger than expected, Munich-based Ifo Institute data. He said the Ifo report has shown a brighter economic outlook in Germany last month, with the Business Climate index, up to 101.6 in April from 98.2 in March. "Positive data from the Ifo has led investors to sell the dollar and buy other currencies," the dealer explained.

The ringgit was also higher against other major currencies today. It rose against the Singapore dollar to 2.3227/3283 from 2.3310/3339 yesterday but declined against the Japanese yen at 3.4308/4358 from 3.4257/4275 previously. The local currency appreciated against the euro at 4.2683/2753 from 4.2852/2887 yesterday and improved against the British pound at 4.9252/9342 from 4.9358/9380 previously.
BERNAMA

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hi,

Today the ringgit is featured as the cover story in Starbizweek, the local business news supplement for the Star newspaper. Here's the intros for the articles plus the links :


24 April 2010 : Ringgit Rising
"The ringgit has been strengthening against most of the world’s major currencies since early this year. But will this trend sustain? ZAINAL Azhar has been shopping for the best rates to swap ringgit for euros for his upcoming business trip to Germany. The 40-year-old businessman from Kuala Lumpur says he has been buying euros in phases in preparation for the visit next month. His friends, Susan Lee and Albert John, are also watching how the ringgit is faring against other currencies. Lee, a financial analyst in her 30s, has been waiting for months to score a “cheaper” vacation to the United States, while sixty something John is sending his youngest son to Britain for further studies.

The current appreciation of the ringgit will not significantly impact Malaysia’s export competitiveness because other regional currencies are also rising at the same time. The trio are hoping to get the most bang for their bucks when they exchange their ringgit for other currencies. So, the recent rise of the ringgit bodes well for individuals like them – not to mention for those who like to shop online for overseas products. Since early this year, the ringgit has been strengthening against most of the world’s major currencies.

On nominal terms, the ringgit has appreciated about 6.7% year-to-date against the US dollar. The ringgit is now hovering at a two-year high against the greenback at 3.19, compared with 3.42 at the start of the year, and last year’s peak of 3.72 recorded in March.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/24/business/6114468&sec=business


24 April, 2010 : Rising ringgit draws foreign Investors
THE strengthening of the ringgit against the greenback and other currencies has whetted foreign investors’ appetite for domestic assets, including bonds – at least for the short term. These investors’ prefer to put their money in Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), which have a lower credit risk compared with corporate bonds. Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd (MARC) chief executive officer Mohd Razlan Mohamed says the appreciation of the ringgit has triggered an increase in foreign buying of MGS.

Mohd Razlan Mohamed ... ‘Foreign investors see currency gains as one of the components of investment returns.’ Foreign investors see currency gains as one of the components of investment returns. The larger purchases of MGS relative to corporate bonds are quite understandable considering the extremely low credit risk in this asset class.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/24/business/6111044&sec=business


24 April, 2010 : Stronger currency, stronger stock Market?
WHAT does a strengthening ringgit do to our stock market? TA Securities senior technical analyst Stephen Soo says a firm ringgit is a boost to the stock market as it encourages fund inflows. Although he sees bonds as the main beneficiary of a stronger ringgit, with equities next, he is more bullish on equities for the second half of the year, on the back of the tabling of the 10th Malaysian Plan and the release of more details on the New Economic Model.

“In the last two years, Malaysia has experienced a net outflow of foreign direct investments (FDIs). As the ringgit strengthens, this will at least stop some of the outflows and support liquidity flows. This liquidity will need to go somewhere and stocks will benefit,” says Soo.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2010/4/24/business/6065871&sec=business

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hi,

Sterling was just a fraction off a 52 week low against the ringgit today at 4.87 compared with a 52 week high of 5.94 - seems ages ago.

GBP is now at Singapore Dollar 2.0005 according to the BBC's Market Data for Tourist Rates. Almost 1 for 2 - wow. Here's a poser - Keep S$ at 1% interest or change to sterling at 4% and wait for sterling to go back up (if it ever would). Any ideas ?


29 April, 2010 :  FOREX: Ringgit Closes Firmer Against US Dollar
KUALA LUMPUR,  The ringgit closed firmer against the US dollar Thursday, dealers said. At 5pm, the local currency strengthened against the greenback to 3.1960/2000 from 3.2160/2200 Wednesday.

A dealer said, there was not much of moving factors in the market today, and therefore, the local unit traded in a tight range.
"The ringgit only started to move in the later part of the afternoon and traded between the 3.1930 and 3.2100 levels against the US dollar today," a dealer said. Another dealer said, speculation on aid to Greece following its debt crisis, helped the local note to appreciate. However, he said the market remains cautious over the euro zone debt crisis, due to its uncertainity.

Against other major currencies, the ringgit was slighty lower against the Singapore dollar at 2.3322/3373 from 2.3299/3350 yesterday but rose against the Japanese yen to 3.3989/4053 from 3.4388/4446 previously. It weakened slightly against the euro to 4.2299/2362 from 4.2287/2346 yesterday but increased against the British pound to 4.8630/8710 from 4.8812/8880 previously.
BERNAMA